Would it be possible to ride a camel, a llama and an elephant, all during the same weekend?

I mean a ride, not being led around a tiny ring with small children laughing and parents clutching them tighter while giving you odd stares. And let’s make it “local” to San Diego.

The answer turns out to be yes, but barely, and the most difficult animal to locate surprised me.

The plan.

Start midnight Friday with a 9 hour drive straight to Carson City, NV.

Arrive Carson City, NV. Breakfast, ride camel for two hours at the Nevada Camel Company. Turn around, and drive for 8 hours to Perris, CA.

Arrive Perris, CA. Dinner, now 9 pm. Sleep until 7 am. Breakfast. Ride elephant for two hours at Have Trunk Will Travel. Drive for 1.5 hours to Julian, CA.

Arrive Julian, CA. Lunch, now 2 pm. Ride llama for two hours at LeeLin Llama Treks. Drive for 1 hour back to San Diego. Celebratory dinner.

The hardest animal to locate for riding? Yes, it was the camel. Elephants are harder, and llamas are surprisingly easy

Using computers as an analogy, if a vector existed for the propagation of genetic material between species, the entire evolutionary process becomes massively paralleled.  This would allow for a much faster rate of evolution, as well as the possibility for the same genetic changes to occur among many members of the same species nearly simultaneously.  This would greatly increase the likelihood of permanent change.  So, from an entirely mathematical prospective, this would make the entire process far more robust.

I decided to call this the “Manticorean theory of evolution” for the obvious reason.

This would imply that our DNA should primarily consist of bits and pieces of ancient viruses, with a smaller amount reflecting persistent species-specific mutations.

I haven’t been following this area, but here’s a recent quote from “Viruses: The unsung heroes of evolution”:

It’s not just bacteria that are full of virus genes. Geneticists have discovered that the genomes of every living organism appear to be laden with the remains of ancient viral infections. In eukaryotes, the most complex domain of cellular life including humans, the main source of this DNA is retroviruses – RNA viruses that, after infecting a cell, convert their genome into DNA and integrate it into the host. Sometimes they become a permanent addition, called an endogenous retrovirus, or ERV.

ERVs have been known of since the 1970s, but the full extent of their infiltration did not become apparent until 2003, when genome sequencing revealed that our DNA is absolutely dripping with them. At least 8 per cent of the human genome consists of clearly-identifiable ERVs. Another 40 to 50 per cent looks suspiciously ERV-like, and much of the rest consists of DNA elements that multiply and spread in virus-like ways.  Taken together, virus-like genes represent a staggering 90 per cent of the human genome. ERVs have also been found in rodents, apes, monkeys, koalas – essentially everywhere geneticists look. “There is this continuous raining of viral genes into cellular genomes,” says Forterre.

Maybe not so crazy!

1. Petzold – Minuet in G Major
2. Beach – Gavotte
3. Starer – Silver and Gold (a 12-tone piece); Grey is also 12-tone, but I like this one better.
4. Bach – Two-part Invention, No. 1 (C Major)
5. Chopin – Prelude In A Major, Op. 28, No. 7

This will keep me busy for a while!

Consider this description of A (one of the “smart” boys):

A. Age, 10 years 2 months.  Weight, 63 lbs.  Healthy and without marked physical defects.  Of American parentage, son of a carpenter.  Has attended school 5 1/2 years and is in 6th grade.  His teacher describes him as poor in drawing, but good in all his other work, being specially apt in arithmetic, and delighting in the solution of complicated problems.  At school, also, he shows unusual inquisitiveness and desire for explanations.  In the tests he takes rather low rank in invention, very high in mathematics, and extremely low in physical dexterity.  His many automatisms are noted elsewhere.  His awkwardness is  well nigh indescribable.  Several times he fell off his chair while going through his numerous contortions.  Never acquired any dexterity with the cup and ball.  In the latter exercise he was not only unable to get the cup in proper position for catching the ball, but never even learned to control the force of the swing.  For two or three trials the ball was swung over his shoulder at full length of the string.  Then would follow two or three attempts about as much too weak, the ball not rising enough to permit the cup to be placed under it.  This same lack of motor control is seen in his inability to shoot marbles, to sing a simple tune, to learn to swim (though he tried almost every day during one summer), to learn complex movements with Indian clubs, or even to perform so apparently simple a feat as walking with a book balanced on the head.  He is of lively and sunny disposition, but a little mischievous and even headstrong at times. His expression is lively, his eyes have a happy twinkle, and he often talks jocosely to himself as he works.

Don’t feel too sorry for A, however, he rocked on the mathematics!

I don’t know if this has been noticed before, but it appears that one of the “stupid” boys, N, might be dyslexic.

N‘s reading:

For two weeks I tutored N daily one hour in reading.  His reading is by small units.  Phrases are apparently not thrown together into one mental content.  I made special effort to correct this fault, thinking it possibly only a matter of habit, but with little success.  In making the effort to read by larger wholes he miscalls and transposes very many words.  I had also little success in trying to get him to tone his voice down to conversational pitch and to modulate it more naturally.  Punctuation was little heeded.  He has a very marked habit of reversing the position of words in a phrase and of separate sounds in a word.  Very often he hits correctly on part of the sound of a word and fills in the rest incorrectly.  For example, as instead of so, saw instead of was, with instead of what, wistful instead of wise, icicles instead of ice crystals. Such errors are made in almost every line.  Careful re-examination showed no defect of vision.

N‘s description (note that G is one of the “smart” boys):

N. Age, 13 years 9 months.  Weight, 81 lbs.  Hearing only 1/2 normal.  Brother of G. In sixth grade, though he has attended school since the age of 4 years.  His teacher finds him the most stupid pupil she ever had.  Uniformly poor in all his studies.  Never read a book.  Says he can’t get the meaning.  Enjoys very much having his younger brother, G, read to him. G has read several books to him and N takes great interest in them.  Normal, if not super-normal, memory for stories heard.  His mother says he remembers better than G. In more than one respect N’s ability is puzzling.  He is almost totally unable to read or spell and yet he has a fairly fluent command of spoken language.  He also ranks outside his group in the ability to interpret fables.  Greater age may contribute to this result but will not account for it in full.  H, of nearly equal age, ranks 14 in the fable test.  According to his teacher, N is stubborn, high tempered, easily offended, and childish in his play.  My own observations confirm this.  He realizes that he is duller than other children.  The father, when trying to teach him, gets impatient and calls him a blockhead.  At this the boy goes to another room and cries.  Interests extensive enough, but shallow and lacking permanence.  He stands in interesting contrast with H or M. The latter belong to Kraepelin’s dull type of sub-normal mentality, while N is a good example of the lively type.  He has good facial expression and is handsome.  In movements he is rather awkward.  He is a confirmed bed-wetter.

Needless to say, ethical standards have improved since Terman was awarded his doctorate from Stanford in 1907.

I covered:

1. Some crazy ideas that I’d do if I were GM
2. The distribution of runs in baseball – Steven Miller (Williams) and I are both working on “best” models
3. Modeling head-to-head results in baseball – very much related to the previous topic
4. I discussed some interesting amateur prospects, highlighting some of the difficulties faced in evaluations

Enjoy!

INFORMS Talk (October 13, 2009)

Suffer no more!  Stop by and in less than two minutes I’ll show you a simple single-block strategy that’ll solve 90% of Sudoku puzzles directly, and the rest with a small amount of trial and error.  Beaten no more, the pursuing crowds will step back in awe when you boldly assert that Sudoku is too simple for your Vast Intellect.  Proudly register your brain at the local police station as a Deadly Sudoku Weapon.  After learning from the unofficial Sudoku advisor to Barack Obama, you’ll enjoy your new life as a lean, mean, number-filling machine!

Note: No fee, but there is a tip jar.

Babawande Olabisi

We drafted Wande in the 30th round, and he’s already reported to our Arizona League (rookie) affiliate, the AZL Padres.

Current Statistics

Golfers are less aggressive when putting for birdie than for par, costing strokes.

For the 2009 baseball draft, day one, I went with a frog-themed Leonard tie, using a four-in-hand knot with an Aristotle Onassis finish.

2_on Lo Ri Lo Ri Co T Ri Co   Onassis

Although this knot is technically no different from the four-in-hand (2) (the wide blade is simply thrown behind ond over the existing knot), it gives a dramatically different appearance. It was worn by the Greek shipping tycoon Aristotle Onassis and, according to The New York Times in 1989, it ‘still has a certain popularity along Seventh Avenue’ in New York City.

The suffix ‘on’ has been added to the knot number 2 to designate this Onassis variation. The Ri Co effect can in principle be applied to any knot, although the effect will be the same.

I’ve wanted to be here for weeks. Getting sick (swine flu?), however, followed by 14-hour days filled with player discussions, endless video clips and detailed statistical analysis doesn’t allow for much beach time.

Day One

The draft, finally.  We have the third overall pick and select the best high school player in the draft, Donavan Tate.  Tate runs like the wind, and he has a 788 on-base percentage.  He’s not only the best high school player in this draft, I doubt he’s ever met another person his age who’s as good an athlete as he is, at any sport, any place, any time.  Tate’s already turned down a full football scholarship to powerhouse USC, and we’ll be dangling $5 or $6 million to convince him to pass on his full baseball and football scholarship to top school UNC.  At UNC he’d not only be the stud baseball player, but also the football quarterback. No campus would be large enough to contain how big he’d be.

Donavan Tate

In the second round we take another high school hitter, Everett Williams.  When all is said and done, Williams is the only player in this draft who might turn out to be even better than Tate.  Tate runs like the wind, too.  He’ll get over $1 million if he signs.

Everett Williams

Tate and Everett are lords of creation.  The only time I’ve ever felt like one was at the start of my second semester in college.  Terrified, I studied constantly during that first semester.  My first exam was an engineering statics exam, and I get a 95.  Unsure of how I stood, I went to speak to the class TA to discuss my mistake.  I arrive at his office; the line is the longest I’ve seen since Space Mountain at Disney World. More students join the line behind me.  I look at my test again for the hundredth time, then look at the two people standing next to me.  The person in front scored a 7, the person behind a 12.  I finally make it to the TA; the average score was a 22, and my 95 was the highest.  My mistake?  I left off a minus sign on a vector.  The rest of my classes that semester go similarly.  At the start of that second semester, I was a lord of creation.

Tate and Everett will make the same mistake that I made.  During that second semester I stopped comparing myself to the students in my classes and started comparing myself to the professors; Tate and Everett will soon be comparing themselves to Mike Cameron and Grady Sizemore.  I came up short, and they’ll come up short.  Eventually, maybe not, but for now, yes.

Day Two

At the other end of the spectrum, on the second day we draft college player Cameron Monger out the University of New Mexico.  Monger runs like the wind, too; he’s an 80 run on the 20-80 scouting speed scale.  Monger isn’t Tate; Monger isn’t Williams.  Over his three years to UNM he’s only gotten 40 plate appearances, and he’ll get at most $2500 if he signs. But don’t worry about Monger – he’s physics major with a 4.0 GPA.  If playing baseball doesn’t work out, he might be running a major league baseball team some day.

In the 30th round we take Wande Olabisi out of Stanford.  He runs like the wind; he’s also an 80 on the scouting speed scale.  Olabisi might get $1000.  But don’t worry about Olabisi – not only does he have a Stanford education, he was born in Nigeria to the royal family of the Urhobo tribe.  If baseball doesn’t work out, he might be running a major country some day.

Day Three

The talent pool has evaporated. We keep drafting down to the 50th round, until we’re taking players that have no talent, but who are related to someone who does.  In the 48th round they decide to take a D3 pitcher out of the University of Texas at Tyler, Brett Holland.  None of our scouts has seen him pitch, but through some hacking I’ve managed to obtain some information that no one else probably knows – Holland’s ground ball to fly ball ratio is 3 to 1, the highest of any college pitcher in the draft.  He was the strikeout leader for all of D3 baseball in 2008 and 2009 and was drafted by Oakland in the 49th round 2008 (but didn’t sign).  D3 schools award no scholarships; he’s unlikely to be a prospect.  But, he clearly has a decent breaking ball, some scout at Oakland liked him enough in 2008, and he strikes out the weaker  thletes in D3; he has a chance, a very small chance.  I get to announce the pick.  All of the other major league teams hear me read his ID number, name, position and school.  Here’s your shot; run, Brett, run.

Midnight

I don’t run like the wind, but I run.  I run past the grunion; I run past the two fisherman illegally using buckets.  As I run I think about Keyvious Sampson, a high school pitcher we drafted.  His mother passed away two years ago, his father is  battling health issues; he can throw a ball 96 mph and struck out 126 batters in only 71 innings.  Will he sign?  Sampson  will be also be running like the wind, towards his future.

Keyvius Sampson

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